Apa Bad Inflasi? Past, Present, Future
Tingkat inflasi AS ing taun yaiku pangowahan persentase ing tingkat saka taun nganti taun sabanjuré, utawa taun-taun . Iku ganti karo saben tahap siklus bisnis . Fase kapisan yaiku ekspansi . Nalika iku wutah positif, kanthi inflasi 2 persen sehat. Minangka ekonomi ngembangake ngluwihi 3 persen, iku nggawe gelembung aset . Tahap kedua yaiku puncak . Sing sasi nalika ekspansi ends lan kontraksi wiwit.
Fase ketiga minangka kontraksi , yaiku resesi. Inflasi dumadi ing ngisor iki 2.0 persen. Ora suwe, deflation dadi ancaman. Tahap keempat yaiku palung . Sing sasi nalika kontraksi lan ekspansi diwiwiti.
Inflasi uga nanggapi kebijakan moneter sing dijupuk dening Federal Reserve . The Fed fokus ing tingkat inflasi inti amarga ngilangi gas gas lan pangan. The Fed ndadekake tingkat inflasi target 2 persen. Yen tingkat inti mundhak luwih dhuwur, Fed bakal ngetokake kebijakan moneter kontraksi . Iki nambahake tingkat kapentingan , ngindhari kepenak lan meksa regane luwih murah.
Sajarah lan Prakiraan Tarif Inflasi AS
Tabel ing ngisor iki mbandhingake tingkat inflasi kanthi tingkat dana pangan , fase siklus bisnis lan acara utama sing nyebabake inflasi. Kanggo luwih akeh ramalan, waca US Economic Outlook .
| Taun | Inflasi Tingkat YOY | Rate Dana Fed | Siklus Bisnis (Pertumbuhan PDB) | Acara Inflasi Inflasi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 0.6% | NA | Aug puncak | Kacilakan pasar |
| 1930 | -6,4% | NA | Contraction (-8.5%) | Smoot-Hawley |
| 1931 | -9,3% | NA | Kontraksi (-6.4%) | Debu Bowl |
| 1932 | -10,3% | NA | Contraction (-12.9%) | Pajak kena pajak Hoover |
| 1933 | 0,8% | NA | Kontrak rampung ing Maret. (-1,3%) | New Deal FDR |
| 1934 | 1.5% | NA | Ekspansi (10.8%) | Utang utang AS |
| 1935 | 3.0% | NA | Ekspansi (8.9%) | Keamanan sosial |
| 1936 | 1.4% | NA | Ekspansi (12.9%) | Kenaikan pajak FDR |
| 1937 | 2.9% | NA | Ekspansi puncak ing Mei (5.1%) | Depresi diterusake |
| 1938 | -2,8% | NA | Kontrak rampung ing wulan Juni (-3.3%) | Depresi ditutup |
| 1939 | 0,0% | NA | Ekspansi (8.0%) | Debu Bowl rampung |
| 1940 | 0.7% | NA | Ekspansi (8,8%) | Pertahanan tambah |
| 1941 | 9.9% | NA | Ekspansi (17.7%) | Pearl Harbor |
| 1942 | 9,0% | NA | Ekspansi (18.9%) | Pertahanan mbuwang dhuwit |
| 1943 | 3.0% | NA | Ekspansi (17.0%) | |
| 1944 | 2,3% | NA | Ekspansi (8.0%) | Bretton-Woods |
| 1945 | 2.2% | NA | Feb peak.Oct trough (-1.0%) | Truman rampung Perang Donya II |
| 1946 | 18.1% | NA | Ekspansi (-11.3%) | Potongan budget |
| 1947 | 8,8% | NA | Ekspansi (-1.1%) | Dokter Marshall Plan.Truman. Perang Dingin |
| 1948 | 3.0% | NA | Puncak Nov (4.1%) | |
| 1949 | -2.1% | NA | Oct trough (-0.5%) | Panjaluk Adil. NATO |
| 1950 | 5.9% | NA | Ekspansi (8.7%) | Perang Korea |
| 1951 | 6.0% | NA | Ekspansi (8.1%) | |
| 1952 | 0,8% | NA | Ekspansi (4.1%) | |
| 1953 | 0.7% | NA | Puncak wulan Juli (4.7%) | Eisenhower mungkasi Perang Korea |
| 1954 | -0.7% | 1.25% | May trough (-0.6%) | Dow bali ing taun 1929 |
| 1955 | 0.4% | 2.50% | Ekspansi (7.1%) | |
| 1956 | 3.0% | 3.00% | Ekspansi (2.1%) | |
| 1957 | 2.9% | 3.00% | Aug puncak (2.1%) | Resesi |
| 1958 | 1.8% | 2.50% | April trough (-0.7%) | Resesi rampung |
| 1959 | 1.7% | 4.00% | Ekspansi (6.9%) | Didhekake tarif |
| Taun 1960 | 1.4% | 2.00% | Puncak April (2.6%) | Resesi |
| 1961 | 0.7% | 2.00% | Feb trough (2.6%) | Pembuangan defisit JFK rampung resesi |
| 1962 | 1.3% | 3.00% | Ekspansi (6.1%) | |
| 1963 | 1.6% | 3.38% | Ekspansi (4.4%) | |
| 1964 | 1.0% | 3.75% | Ekspansi (5.8%) | LBJ's Medicare, Medicaid |
| 1965 | 1.9% | 4.25% | Ekspansi (6.5%) | |
| 1966 | 3.5% | 5.50% | Ekspansi (6.6%) | Perang Vietnam |
| 1967 | 3.0% | 4.50% | Ekspansi (2.7%) | |
| 1968 | 4.7% | 6.00% | Expansion (4.9%) | Bulan kebangkrutan |
| 1969 | 6.2% | 9,00% | Puncul pit (3.1%) | Nixon njupuk kantor |
| 1970 | 5.6% | 5.00% | Nov trough (0.2%) | Resesi |
| 1971 | 3.3% | 5.00% | Ekspansi (3.3%) | Kontrol regane regane |
| 1972 | 3.4% | 5.75% | Ekspansi (5.2%) | Stagflasi |
| 1973 | 8,7% | 11.00% | Puncak Nov (5.6%) | Pungkasan standar emas |
| 1974 | 12,3% | 8,00% | Singkatan (-0.5%) | Watergate |
| 1975 | 6.9% | 6.50% | Maret trough (-0.2%) | Kebijakan babakan dhuwit kanthi cepet. Fed ngunggahake tarif kanggo nglawan inflasi, banjur ngedhunake wong-wong mau kanggo perang resesi. Bisnis bingung terus dhuwur. |
| 1976 | 4.9% | 4.75% | Ekspansi (5.4%) | |
| 1977 | 6.7% | 6.50% | Ekspansi (4,6%) | |
| 1978 | 9,0% | 10.00% | Ekspansi (5.6%) | |
| 1979 | 13,3% | 12,00% | Ekspansi (3.2%) | |
| Taun 1980 | 12,5% | 18.00% | Puncak Jan (0.2%) | Resesi |
| 1981 | 8,9% | 12,00% | Juli trough (2.6%) | Cut pajak reagan |
| 1982 | 3.8% | 8,50% | Nopember (-1.9%) | Resesi rampung |
| 1983 | 3.8% | 9,25% | Ekspansi (4,6%) | Reagan nambah belanja militer |
| 1984 | 3.9% | 8.25% | Ekspansi (7.3%) | |
| 1985 | 3.8% | 7.75% | Ekspansi (4.2%) | |
| 1986 | 1.1% | 6.00% | Ekspansi (3.5%) | Potong pajak |
| 1987 | 4.4% | 6.75% | Ekspansi (3.5%) | Kacilakan ana ireng |
| 1988 | 4.4% | 9,75% | Ekspansi (4.2%) | Didhekake tarif |
| 1989 | 4.6% | 8.25% | Ekspansi (3.7%) | S & L Krisis |
| 1990 | 6.1% | 7,00% | Puncak Jul (1.9%) | Resesi |
| 1991 | 3.1% | 4.00% | Mar trough (-0.1%) | Fed tarif sing diturunake |
| 1992 | 2.9% | 3.00% | Ekspansi (3.6%) | NAFTA disusun |
| 1993 | 2.7% | 3.00% | Ekspansi (2.7%) | Undhang-undhang Balanced Budget |
| 1994 | 2.7% | 5.50% | Ekspansi (4.0%) | |
| 1995 | 2.5% | 5.50% | Ekspansi (2.7%) | |
| 1996 | 3.3% | 5.25% | Ekspansi (3.8%) | Reformasi kesejahteraan |
| 1997 | 1.7% | 5.50% | Ekspansi (4.5%) | Ngurangi tarif panganan |
| 1998 | 1.6% | 4.75% | Ekspansi (4.5%) | Krisis LTCM |
| 1999 | 2.7% | 5.50% | Ekspansi (4.7%) | Kaca-Steagall dicabut |
| 2000 | 3.4% | 6.50% | Ekspansi (4.1%) | Tekanan gelembung Tech |
| 2001 | 1.6% | 1.75% | Puncak Maret. Nov trough. (1.0%) | Cut tax Bush. Serangan 9/11 |
| 2002 | 2.4% | 1.25% | Ekspansi (1.8%) | Perang Teror |
| 2003 | 1.9% | 1.00% | Ekspansi (2.8%) | JGTRRA |
| 2004 | 3.3% | 2.25% | Ekspansi (3.8%) | |
| 2005 | 3.4% | 4.25% | Ekspansi (3.3%) | Katrina . Undhang-undhang Bankruptcy |
| 2006 | 2.5% | 5.25% | Ekspansi (2.7%) | Bernanke yaiku Ketua Fed |
| 2007 | 4.1% | 4.25% | Puncul Pekan (1.8%) | Krisis bank |
| 2008 | 0,1% | 0% | Kontraksi (-.3%) | Krisis keuangan |
| 2009 | 2.7% | 0% | Jun trough (2.8%) | ARRA |
| 2010 | 1.5% | 0% | Ekspansi (2.5%) | ACA . Dodd-Frank |
| 2011 | 3.0% | 0% | Ekspansi (1.6%) | Krisis utang langit |
| 2012 | 1.7% | 0% | Ekspansi (2.2%) | |
| 2013 | 1.5% | 0% | Ekspansi (1.7%) | Pamrentahan pemerintah . Sequestration |
| 2014 | 0,8% | 0% | Ekspansi (2.4%) | QE ends |
| 2015 | 0.7% | 0.25% | Ekspansi (2.6%) | Deflasi ing harga minyak lan gas |
| 2016 | 2.1% | 0.75% | Ekspansi (1.6%) | |
| 2017 | 2.1% | 1.50% | Tingkat inflasi inti 1,8%. Tingkat saiki dianyari saben wulan. | |
| 2018 | 1.9% | 2.0% | Ramalan. Tingkat inti 1.9% | |
| 2019 | 2.0% | 2.5% | Ramalan. Tingkat inti 2.0% | |
| 2020 | 2.0% | 3.0% | Ramalan. Tingkat inti 2.0% | |
Sumber Daya kanggo Tabel
- BLS, Tingkat Inflasi Sajarah
- Biro Sensus AS, Persen Kependudukan sing Nganggur 1929-1947 Wigati: Iki mbagekake nomer wong umur 14 utawa luwih tanpa proyek menyang total populasi sipil.
- BLS, Tingkat Pengangguran 1948-2015 Wigati: Iki mbagekake nomer pengangguran sing aktif nliti kerja menyang angkatan kerja.
- Tingkat Dana Berjangka Bersejarah
- Dana Fed efektif: St Louis Federal Reserve (Digunakna kanggo ngetungake target dana Fed sadurunge taun 1971.)
- Resesi Sejarah
- Sajarah Standar Emas
- NBER, Tanggal Siklus Bisnis
- BEA, Pendapatan Nasional, lan Tabel Akun Prodhuk: Tabel 1.1.1. Tingkat pertumbuhan PDB
- The Fed migunakake model komplek komputer kanggo nggawe ramalan. Nanging akeh variasi sing owah ing antarané ramalan sing angel dadi persis telung taun. Bab sing penting kanggo ngakoni yen Fed ora mikir inflasi bakal dadi ancaman sing bisa dipercaya ing mangsa ngarep. (Sumber: " Proyeksi Ekonomi Federal Reserve, " Federal Reserve, 14 Juni 2017.)